Economists including Luo Zhiheng of Yuekai Securities forecast China's export growth to slow to 4% (USD-denominated) in 2026, still above the global average, with export share rising from 14.6% in 2024 to 15.5%. In 2025, exports grew 5.0%, surpassing expectations due to non-US markets (cumulative boost of 6.0 percentage points from Africa, ASEAN, India from Jan-Nov), with intermediate and capital goods up 9.7% and 6.0% year-on-year as core drivers. Support in 2026 comes from industrialisation in emerging markets (Africa, ASEAN, Latin America) driving demand for industrial and intermediate goods, ASEAN's and Chinese overseas firms' reliance on key intermediates, and global AI computing power investment boosting electrical equipment exports.

However, slower global trade momentum (WTO projects only 0.5% trade volume growth in 2026), base effects, and potential trade barriers will slow export growth. By market, the US drag narrows (Sino-US tariff war may ease temporarily, US loose monetary and fiscal policy stimulates demand), while non-US market support moderates (ASEAN, Latin America re-export dividends fade, high base, EU carbon tariffs raise costs). Policy suggestions: deepen domestic reforms and industrial upgrading, expand high-standard opening-up internationally.

Risk warnings: escalation of Sino-US tariff war, global trade uncertainty, geopolitical risks.

The outlook for China's exports has dual implications for New Zealand small and medium enterprise (SME) owners. On one hand, China's export resilience stems from the global competitiveness of intermediate and capital goods, meaning local NZ manufacturers may face fiercer import competition—Chinese machinery, industrial components, and other products have clear price advantages, potentially squeezing NZ SMEs' market share. On the other hand, China's export structure upgrade boosts demand for high-quality raw materials and agricultural products, supporting NZ's dairy, meat, and fruit exports to China.

While China imports agricultural goods from emerging markets like ASEAN and Latin America, its preference for premium food still gives NZ brands pricing power. Notably, EU carbon tariffs and other new rules raise China's export costs to Europe, potentially diverting Chinese exporters to other markets, allowing NZ's preferential access to Europe (e.g., via free trade agreements) to maintain a relative advantage. Additionally, if the Sino-US tariff war eases, Chinese consumer purchasing power may recover, indirectly benefiting NZ tourism and education exports.

SMEs should monitor China's intermediate goods import lists (e.g., mechanical parts, chemical raw materials) to assess supply chain dependence on China, while seizing opportunities from the upgraded NZ-China FTA to expand high-end food promotion via e-commerce and exhibitions. Conclusion: China's export growth may slow in 2026 but trade volumes remain large; NZ firms should differentiate on quality in niche areas to avoid direct price competition with Chinese exports.

Keywords: China's exports, resilience, tariffs, market diversification, intermediate goods, capital goods, non-US markets, export growth, Yuekai Securities, Luo Zhiheng

粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒等预计，2026年中国出口增速将放缓至4%（按美元计价），但仍高于全球平均水平，出口份额有望从2024年14.6%升至15.5%。2025年出口增长5.0%，韧性超预期，主要受非美市场拉动（1-11月对非洲、东盟、印度等出口累计拉动整体出口6.0个百分点），中间品和资本品出口同比增长9.7%和6.0%，成为核心动力。2026年出口支撑来自：新兴市场工业化（非洲、东盟、拉美等）对工业品和中间品的需求，东盟和中国出海企业对关键中间品的依赖，全球AI算力投资带动电力设备出口。

但受全球贸易动能放缓（WTO预计2026年贸易量仅增0.5%）、基数效应及潜在贸易壁垒影响，出口增速回落。分市场看，美国市场拖累收窄（中美关税战或阶段性缓和，美国宽货币宽财政刺激需求），非美市场拉动趋缓（东盟、拉美转口红利消退、高基数，欧盟碳关税等新规推高成本）。政策建议：国内深化改革、产业升级，国际扩大高水平对外开放。

风险提示：中美关税战升级、全球贸易不确定性、地缘政治风险。

对中国出口形势的展望，对新西兰中小企业主意味着双重影响。一方面，中国出口韧性来自中间品和资本品的全球竞争力，这意味着新西兰本地制造业可能面临更激烈的进口竞争——中国机电设备、工业零部件等产品价格优势明显，可能挤压新西兰同类中小企业的市场份额。另一方面，中国出口结构升级带动了对高品质原材料和农牧产品的需求，新西兰乳制品、肉类、水果等对华出口有望维持增长，尤其是中国从东盟、拉美等新兴市场进口农产品的同时，对高端食品的偏好仍使新西兰品牌具有溢价空间。

值得留意的是，欧盟碳关税等新规推高中国对欧出口成本，可能促使中国出口企业转向其他市场，新西兰对欧出口优惠（如自贸协定）可保持相对优势。此外，中美关税战缓和若成真，中国消费者购买力回升，将间接利好新西兰旅游和教育出口。建议中小企业主关注中国中间品进口清单（如机电零件、化工原料），评估自身供应链是否依赖中国供给；同时抓住中新自贸协定升级机遇，通过电商和展会扩大在华高端食品推广。

结语：中国2026年出口增速放缓但贸易量仍大，新西兰企业需在细分领域强化品质差异，避免与中国出口商品直接价格竞争。

关键词: 中国出口, 韧性, 关税, 市场多元化, 中间品, 资本品, 非美市场, 出口增速, 粤开证券, 罗志恒

Photo by Shuaizhi Tian on Pexels

Source: Tencent News