A report from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) shows that due to the ongoing downturn in China's real estate market, Chinese real estate investment fell by 10.2% year-on-year in 2024, with the slowdown in construction directly reducing demand for logs. Chinese customs data indicates that in the fourth quarter of 2024, China's log imports fell by 8.8% year-on-year to 8,575.4 thousand cubic metres, of which New Zealand radiata pine accounted for 51.4% of total imports, approximately 4,431.7 thousand cubic metres, down from 54% in 2023. More than 85% of New Zealand radiata pine exports rely on the Chinese market, and current weak consumer confidence and sluggish construction demand have significantly impacted New Zealand exports.

Experts predict it will take about a year for China's property market to stabilise, posing a严峻 outlook for New Zealand timber exports.Industry insiders are calling for attention to market changes, seeking diversified export opportunities, and ensuring industry chain coordination to address challenges.Specific stimulus measures are yet to be announced.

For New Zealand small and medium enterprise owners, particularly those in timber and related industry chains, this news directly signals core market risks. The double-digit decline in Chinese real estate investment, coupled with a simultaneous contraction in log imports, means the traditional model of relying on a single market has reached a critical point. In the short term, log prices may come under pressure and inventory overhang risks rise; in the long term, proactive efforts to open new markets, such as Southeast Asia and India where infrastructure is growing, are needed.

Moreover, high trade dependence makes New Zealand vulnerable to policy fluctuations in China; it is advisable to monitor whether China's affordable housing or green building policies could drive demand for structural timber. Additionally, upstream and downstream enterprises could consider jointly developing high-value-added products (e.g., processed panels, bioenergy) to reduce reliance on log exports. In conclusion, New Zealand's timber industry should use the current window to accelerate market diversification while enhancing product differentiation competitiveness.

Keywords: New Zealand timber exports, Chinese real estate market, declining log imports, radiata pine, foreign trade dependence, industry crisis, market diversification

新西兰外交贸易部（MFAT）报告显示，因中国房地产市场持续低迷，2024年中国房地产投资同比下降10.2%，建筑业放缓直接拉低原木需求。中国海关数据表明，2024年第四季度中国原木进口量同比下滑8.8%至8575.4千立方米，其中新西兰辐射松占进口总量的51.4%约4431.7千立方米，低于2023年的54%。新西兰辐射松85%以上出口依赖中国市场，当前消费者信心不足及建筑需求疲软对新西兰出口造成显著打击。

专家预测中国房市需一年左右恢复稳定，新西兰木材出口形势严峻。行业人士呼吁关注市场变化，寻求多样化出口机会，确保产业链协同以应对挑战。具体提振方案待公布。

对于新西兰中小企业主，尤其是木材及相关产业链从业者，这条新闻直接提示了核心市场风险。中国房地产投资两位数下滑，且原木进口量同步萎缩，意味着依赖单一市场的传统模式已到临界点。短期来看，原木价格可能承压，库存积压风险上升；长期则需主动开辟新市场，例如东南亚、印度等基建增长地区。

另一方面，贸易依存度高也使新西兰易受中国政策波动影响，建议关注中国保障性住房或绿色建筑政策能否带动结构材需求。此外，产业链上下游企业可考虑联合开发高附加值产品（如加工板材、生物质能源），以降低对原木出口的单一依赖。结语：新西兰木材行业应利用当前窗口期加速市场多元化，同时提升产品差异化竞争力。

关键词: 新西兰木材出口, 中国房地产市场, 原木进口下降, 辐射松, 外贸依存度, 行业危机, 市场多元化

Photo by Pexels on Pixabay

Source: Sohu