Log export prices have been rising since December 2023, with positive market sentiment. The industry expects steady export growth to China in Q1 2024. In the first 11 months of 2023, China imported 42.540 million cubic metres of New Zealand logs, up 2.05% year-on-year, but the value fell 13.93% to RMB 14 billion.

November arrivals were 1.8 million cubic metres, up for two consecutive months. Radiata pine imports were 15.51 million cubic metres, accounting for 95% of total New Zealand log imports and 44.6% of China's total log imports, with average price down 15.71% to RMB 857 per cubic metre. Douglas fir imports increased 18.66% to 604,000 cubic metres, with average price down 17.55% to RMB 904 per cubic metre.

Other conifer imports rose 42.54%. New Zealand domestic stocks fell below 2.9 million cubic metres, the lowest since January 2021, representing about 8 weeks of supply. CFR prices are at USD 126-128 per cubic metre, up over USD 10 in one month.

Sawmills reported a slight rise in December sales. Cyclone Gabrielle has led to increased harvest volumes, but timber production is expected to slow in May-June 2024.

This news is a clear positive signal for New Zealand timber exporters. Rising prices and low inventories strengthen bargaining power, especially as radiata pine dominates Chinese imports with stable demand. However, note that the 13.93% value decline in 2023 reflects price pressure, and the post-cyclone production surge may not be sustainable.

From a small business perspective, seize the Q1 price window but closely monitor changes in China's property and infrastructure demand. Another angle: strong growth in Douglas fir and other conifer imports indicates China is diversifying supply; SMEs could consider species mix adjustments or value-added processing. On the risk side, the expected mid-year production slowdown may tighten supply, requiring advance inventory and logistics planning.

It is advisable to watch CFR price trends and lock in long-term contracts with Chinese buyers to stabilise returns. Conclusion: With low inventories and rising prices, Q1 is undoubtedly an opportunity for NZ log exports, but caution is needed on the sustainability of China's recovery.

Keywords: New Zealand logs, China log market, Radiata pine, CFR price, export improvement, low inventory, Cyclone Gabrielle, timber production, import data

新西兰原木出口自2023年12月以来价格持续上涨，市场情绪积极。行业预计2024年第一季度对华出口将稳健发展。2023年前11个月，中国进口新西兰原木1631万立方米，同比增长2.05%，但金额下降13.93%至140亿元。

11月到港180万立方米，连续两个月增长。其中辐射松进口量1551万立方米，占新西兰原木进口总量的95%，占中国原木进口总量的44.6%，平均价格下降15.71%至857元/立方。花旗松进口增长18.66%至60.4万立方米，平均价格下跌17.55%至904元/立方。

其他针叶木进口增长42.54%。新西兰国内库存降至290万立方米以下，为2021年1月以来最低，约8周供应量。CFR价格在126-128美元/立方米，一个月内上涨超10美元。

锯木厂反馈12月销售额略有上升。飓风加布里埃尔导致收获量增加，但预计2024年5-6月木材产量将放缓。

这条新闻对新西兰木材出口商是明确的积极信号。价格回升和库存低位意味着议价能力增强，尤其辐射松占中国进口主导，中国市场需求稳健。但需注意：2023年金额下降13.93%反映价格压力，且飓风后的产量激增可能不可持续。

从中小企业主视角，可把握一季度提价窗口，但需密切关注中国房地产和基建需求变化。另一视角：花旗松和其他针叶木进口增长明显，说明中国正寻求多元供应，中小企业可考虑品种调整或深加工增值。风险方面，年中产量放缓预期可能导致供应收紧，需提前规划库存和物流。

建议关注CFR价格走势，并与中国买家锁定长协以稳定收益。结语：结合库存低位和价格上扬，一季度无疑是新西兰原木出口的机遇期，但需警惕中国市场复苏的可持续性。

关键词: 新西兰原木, 中国原木市场, 辐射松, CFR价格, 出口好转, 库存低位, 飓风加布里埃尔, 木材产量, 进口数据

Photo by Julius_Silver on Pixabay

Source: Baijiahao