In February 2025, China imported 1.3 million cubic metres of New Zealand logs, up 21% year-on-year;

cumulative imports for January-February totalled 2.42 million cubic metres, down 8% year-on-year. Among them, radiata pine log imports reached 2.28 million cubic metres,

down 8% year-on-year, with import value of US$280 million, down 11% year-on-year;

imports of radiata pine with cross-section ≥15cm totalled 2.26 million cubic metres, average price US$123 per cubic metre, down 3% year-on-year. Eucalyptus log imports halved year-on-year,

dropping 51%; Douglas fir log imports rose 24%.

New Zealand accounts for about 40% of China's total log imports, with radiata pine dominating the mix. The double decline in export volume and price to China at the start of 2025 directly reflects the weakness in China's building materials market—real estate development investment contracted by over 10% in 2024, suppressing demand for structural timber. For small forest owners, an average price of US$123 per cubic metre is close to the cash cost line in some regions; with NZ dollar exchange rate fluctuations, actual returns may be even lower.

However, the market is not all negative: Douglas fir imports increased by 24%, indicating that niche demand for high-end furniture and landscaping remains resilient; the halving of eucalyptus imports highlights increased competition from alternative hardwood materials, with South American eucalyptus priced lower. In terms of industry trends, China is promoting green building materials and prefabricated construction, which may open up space for engineered wood products in the long term, but in the short term radiata pine inventories remain high (China's port stocks exceed 3 million cubic metres), and price recovery will depend on the concentrated start of infrastructure projects in the second quarter. Exporters should watch for replacement demand arising from the degradation of China's 'Three-North' shelterbelt forest, while accelerating market diversification into Southeast Asia, India and other emerging markets to reduce single-market risk.

Lower shipping costs and the zero tariff under the NZ-China FTA are current buffers, but if China's construction activity fails to rebound as expected in the second half, radiata pine prices may continue to grind lower.

Keywords: New Zealand logs, Chinese imports, radiata pine, eucalyptus, Douglas fir, downward pressure, customs data, import volume, price decline

2025年2月，中国进口新西兰原木130万立方米，同比增长21%；1-2月累计进口242万立方米，同比下跌8%。其中辐射松原木进口228万立方米，同比下降8%，进口金额2.8亿美元，同比降11%；截面≥15cm的辐射松进口226万立方米，均价123美元/立方，同比降3%。桉木原木进口量同比腰斩，下降51%；花旗松原木进口增长24%。

新西兰占中国原木进口总量约四成，辐射松是绝对主力。2025年初对华出口量价双降，直接反映中国建材市场疲软——房地产开发投资2024年收缩超10%，压制了建筑用木方需求。对中小林场主而言，均价123美元/立方已接近部分地区的现金成本线，若叠加纽元汇率波动，实际收益可能更低。

不过，市场并非全线悲观：花旗松进口增长24%，表明高端家具、园林等细分需求仍有韧性；桉木腰斩则警示替代性硬木材料竞争加剧，南美桉木价格更低。行业趋势上，中国正推动绿色建材和装配式建筑，长期可能为工程木产品打开空间，但短期内辐射松库存高企（中国港口库存达300万方以上），价格回暖需待二季度基建项目集中开工。出口商宜关注中国“三北”防护林退化带来的替代需求，同时提速东南亚、印度等新兴市场布局，分散单一市场风险。

船运成本回落与中新自贸协定零关税是当前缓冲，但若下半年中国建筑活动未如预期反弹，辐射松价格可能继续磨底。

关键词: 新西兰原木, 中国进口, 辐射松, 桉木, 花旗松, 下行压力, 海关数据, 进口量, 价格下跌

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Source: Zhihu