Summary

On 28 July 2026, Fonterra whole milk powder (WMP) was quoted at 27, 500 yuan per tonne,

while domestic WMP ranged between 26, 700 and 27, 000 yuan per tonne. Domestic skim milk powder was priced at 21,

600 yuan per tonne, WPC34 at 56, 500 yuan per tonne,

imported butter at 1, 070-1, 450 yuan per carton,

anhydrous milk fat at 50, 000-51, 000 yuan per tonne,

and cheese at 820-850 yuan per carton. Forward quotes included OCD WMP at 27, 000 yuan per tonne and NZMP butter at 1, 070-1,

090 yuan per carton, with delivery until the first quarter of 2027.

Commentary

New Zealand exports about 95 per cent of its dairy output, with China as its largest market. In this quotation, Fonterra WMP sits only about 500 yuan per tonne above domestic product, a narrowing gap that reflects competitive pressure from expanding local milk sources. Small and medium exporters relying on bulk commodities face squeezed margins.

However, OCD grass-fed butter is quoted at 1,270 yuan per carton, well above regular butter, while organic whey protein and high-melt butter also retain premiums, indicating strong Chinese consumer appetite for natural and functional ingredients. Under the zero-tariff China-New Zealand FTA, smaller New Zealand dairy companies can avoid tariff cost disadvantages and build brand recognition in segments such as grass-fed, organic and A2 protein. Using forward contracts, such as OCD milk powder at 27,000 yuan per tonne, helps lock in input costs and smooth market volatility.

It is advisable to watch consumption upgrading trends in China's second- and third-tier cities and enter retail and foodservice channels with differentiated products.

Keywords: whole milk powder, skim milk powder, butter, Fonterra, New Zealand, dairy prices

Summary in Chinese | 摘要

2026年7月28日大宗乳品报价公布:恒天然全脂奶粉27500元/吨,国产全脂奶粉26700-27000元/吨,国产脱脂奶粉21600元/吨,浓缩乳清蛋白粉WPC34报价56500元/吨,进口黄油每箱1070-1450元,无水奶油50000-51000元/吨,奶酪每箱820-850元。另有远期报价,OCD全脂奶粉27000元/吨,NZMP黄油1070-1090元/箱,交货期至2027年一季度。

Commentary in Chinese | 评论

作为全球最大乳制品出口国,新西兰乳制品约95%外销,中国稳居第一大市场。本次报价中,恒天然全脂奶粉较国产仅溢价约500元/吨,价差缩窄折射出中国本土奶源扩张带来的竞争压力,中小出口商若依赖大宗原料将面临利润挤压。但同时,OCD草饲黄油报价1270元/箱,远超普通黄油,有机乳清蛋白及高熔点黄油等品类同样维持溢价,显示中国消费者对天然、功能成分的支付意愿强烈。

受益于中新FTA零关税,新西兰中小乳企可规避关税成本劣势,在草饲、有机、A2蛋白等细分赛道建立品牌认知,并通过远期合同(如OCD奶粉27000元/吨)提前锁定原料成本,平滑市场波动。建议关注中国二三线城市消费升级趋势,以差异化产品切入零售及餐饮渠道。

关键词: 全脂奶粉, 脱脂奶粉, 黄油, 无水奶油, 奶酪, 乳清蛋白粉, 报价, 乳制品, 恒天然, 新西兰

Source: ZAKER

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