A slowdown in China’s construction sector has reduced demand for New Zealand timber, with logs piling up at Tauranga port. Over 4 million cubic metres of New Zealand timber are stockpiled at Chinese ports, and Chinese importers are discounting radiata pine. A New Zealand timber company CEO said the industry is over-reliant on China, with forestry activity down 30%-40%, sawmill overcapacity at 40%, product prices falling 10%, and two mills expected to close next year.

China accounts for 89% of New Zealand’s log exports. Overall, China makes up 27% of New Zealand’s total exports. In velvet antler, New Zealand exported about NZ$70 million of frozen velvet antler to China in 2022, but since May this year China has stopped importing frozen velvet antler, using only dried product.

New Zealand’s Ministry for Primary Industries is negotiating market access elsewhere. Red meat exports in the first quarter totalled NZ$2.58 billion, down 5% year-on-year and the lowest since 2018. Zespri kiwifruit faces challenges to its expected 40% growth in sales to China this year due to China’s slow economic growth.

However, animal blood and gland products saw strong growth, with exports rising 118% to US$270 million in 2023.

For your New Zealand business, this story’s most direct lesson is the risk of over-reliance on a single market. The timber industry has been hit hard by China’s property downturn, with forestry activity down 30%-40%, prices down 10%, and potential mill closures next year. This suggests that if your product is mainly sold to China, you should consider diversifying markets.

Also note the impact of Chinese policy changes: frozen velvet antler has been banned, with dried antler the only permitted form. If you trade velvet antler, adjust your product form or explore other markets. A positive signal comes from niche areas: animal blood and gland exports grew 118%, a high-value segment worth exploring.

New Zealand SMEs could process non-meat by-products (offal, blood, bone meal) into vaccine ingredients or medical devices, avoiding commodity price wars. Red meat exports overall are weak, but differentiation (e.g. grass-fed, organic) can maintain competitiveness in China. The kiwifruit challenge reminds us that even strong brands can’t fully resist consumption downgrades, as domestic substitutes (e.g. red-flesh kiwifruit) gain competitiveness.

Conclusion: finding alternatives to the China market or deepening involvement in high-value niches (e.g. animal by-products) will be key to future survival.

Keywords: New Zealand, China, exports, timber, velvet antler, red meat, kiwifruit, frozen products, market dependence, niche segments

中国建筑业降温导致新西兰木材需求减少，陶朗加港木材堆积。中国码头囤积超400万立方米新西兰木材，中方木材进口商促销辐射松。新西兰木材公司CEO表示林业过度依赖中国市场，林业活动已减少30%-40%，锯木厂产能过剩40%，产品价格下跌10%，预计明年两家工厂倒闭。

中国是新西兰原木出口最大市场，占89%。新西兰整体出口总额中中国市场占27%。鹿茸方面，2022年新西兰向中国出口约7000万纽币冷冻鹿茸，但中国自今年5月起停止进口冷冻鹿茸，转而只使用干鹿茸；新西兰初级产业部正协商争取进入其他市场。

红肉出口第一季度25.8亿纽币，同比下降5%，为2018年以来最低。佳沛奇异果因中国经济缓步增长，今年销往中国的增长40%预期面临挑战。但动物血液和腺体产品面临强劲增长，2023年出口额逆势增长118%至2.7亿美元。

对您的新西兰企业而言，这条新闻最直接的警示是过度依赖单一市场的风险。木材行业已因中国房地产降温遭受重创，林业活动减少30%-40%，价格下跌10%，且明年可能有关厂潮。这提示您，若您的产品主要销往中国，应考虑分散市场。

同时，注意中国政策变化的影响：冷冻鹿茸被停用，干鹿茸成为唯一准入形态。如果您从事鹿茸贸易，需尽快调整产品形式或开拓其他市场。积极的信号来自细分领域：动物血液和腺体产品出口额逆势增长118%，这一高附加值细分市场值得关注。

新西兰中小企业可探索将非肉类副产品（如内脏、血液、骨粉）加工成疫苗原料或医疗器械，避开大宗商品的价格战。此外，红肉出口整体疲软，但若您能提供差异化产品（如草饲、有机认证），仍可能在中国市场保持竞争力。奇异果面临的挑战提醒我们，即使知名品牌也无法完全抵御消费降级，国产替代品（如红心猕猴桃）的竞争力在增强。

结语：找到中国市场的替代方案或深耕高附加值细分领域（如动物副产品），将是未来生存的关键。

关键词: 新西兰, 中国, 出口, 木材, 鹿茸, 红肉, 奇异果, 冻品, 市场依赖, 细分领域

Photo by traveller1955 on Pixabay

Source: Toutiao