China's manufacturing export structure showed notable changes in the first half of 2026, with chips, ships, new energy vehicles (NEVs) and photovoltaic (PV) products – collectively labelled the 'big four' by industry observers – leading the shift. Wang Weiming, chief engineer at the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said new ship orders from January to May accounted for 81.2% of global total, maintaining the leading position. Zhang Xinlong, general manager of CSSC Chengxi, said the company's current order book exceeds 120 vessels, with production scheduled through 2030.

Guangzhou Shipyard International's order book has surpassed 100 billion yuan, with production also booked to 2030. Chip production averaged over 1.5 billion units per day in the first half, with integrated circuit exports reaching US$177.28 billion, a 96% year-on-year surge. June saw monthly vehicle exports exceed 1 million units for the first time, up 75.1%.

First-half vehicle exports hit US$91.8 billion, up 54%, with cumulative exports surpassing 5 million units. PV product exports rose 36.5% in the first half. Wang Haitao, international sales general manager of Yingli Energy, said Chinese PV companies have become a core engine for energy transition in emerging markets like the Middle East, shifting from 'product export' to 'service and solution export'.

Zhou Xiaoyang, president of Xinjuneng, said the automotive supply chain is transitioning from 'product export' to 'industry export' through three paths: accompanying vehicle exports, building overseas factories, and entering non-Chinese OEM supply chains. Wang Hanyi, a research fellow at Shanghai International Studies University, said the growth driver for China's foreign trade is shifting to innovation, with the going-global model upgrading to 'product + technology + service + localised operations'. Trade with Belt and Road Initiative partner countries reached 12.97 trillion yuan in the first half, up 14.8%, accounting for 50.9% of total trade.

Company orders are generally booked through 2030, indicating strong competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing in the global market.

The surge in China's 'big four' exports reflects a shift from product output to technology, services and localised operations. For NZ small and medium business owners, challenges and opportunities coexist. On one hand, surging Chinese vehicle and PV exports may squeeze NZ's market share in some segments, especially as trade with BRI countries already accounts for over half, potentially diverting NZ's traditional export markets.

On the other hand, China's 'service export' trend opens interfaces for local businesses: NZ distributors and installers can provide localised services for Chinese brands, particularly in rooftop solar and EV charger maintenance. With monthly NEV exports exceeding 1 million units and PV exports up 36.5%, NZ could leverage RCEP rules to participate in the supply chain and capture green transition dividends. However, note that China's chip exports nearly doubled, and semiconductor self-sufficiency may reshape global procurement patterns – NZ tech firms should reassess supply risks and costs.

Keywords: manufacturing upgrade, export structure optimisation, chip exports, ship orders, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic products, going-global model, emerging markets, orders booked to 2030, industrial upgrading

2026年上半年中国制造业出口结构显现新特征，芯片、船舶、新能源汽车和光伏产品被业界称为“四大件”。工信部总工程师王卫明介绍，1至5月造船新接订单量占全球总量的81.2%，稳居首位。中船澄西总经理张新龙表示，目前手持订单120余艘，已排至2030年。

广船国际手持订单总额突破1000亿元，生产排期至2030年。上半年平均每天芯片产出超过15亿块，集成电路出口额达1772.8亿美元，同比飙升96%。6月单月汽车出口量首次突破100万辆，同比增长75.1%；上半年整车出口额达918亿美元，同比增长54%，累计出口量突破500万辆。

光伏产品上半年出口增长36.5%。英利能源国际销售总经理王海涛指出，中国光伏企业已成为中东等新兴市场能源转型的核心引擎，出海模式从“产品出海”向“服务出海”“方案出海”转变。芯聚能总裁周晓阳表示，汽车产业链出口正从“产品出海”向“产业出海”转型，三大路径包括随整车出口、海外建厂、进入海外非中国车企供应链。

上海外国语大学研究员王瀚浥认为，中国外贸增长动能正向创新驱动转变，出海模式升级为“产品+技术+服务+本地化运营”。上半年对共建“一带一路”国家进出口12.97万亿元，同比增长14.8%，占比提升至50.9%。企业订单普遍排至2030年，显示中国制造业在国际市场的强劲竞争力。

中国‘四大件’出口飙升，背后是制造业从产品输出向技术、服务与本地化运营的转型。对NZ中小企业主而言，挑战与机遇并存：一方面，中国汽车、光伏等出口激增，可能挤占NZ在部分市场的份额，尤其‘一带一路’沿线贸易占比已过半，NZ传统出口市场面临分流；另一方面，中国‘服务出海’趋势为本地企业留出接口——NZ中小分销商、安装商可承接中国品牌在地化服务，尤其在屋顶光伏、充电桩运维等领域。当前中国新能源汽车单月出口破百万辆，光伏出口增36.5%，NZ若借力RCEP规则参与供应链配套，或可抓住绿色转型红利。

但需注意，中国芯片出口近乎翻番，半导体自主化可能改变全球采购格局，NZ科技企业应重新评估供货风险与成本。

关键词: 制造业跃迁, 出口结构优化, 芯片出口, 船舶订单, 新能源汽车, 光伏产品, 出海模式, 新兴市场, 订单排至2030年, 产业升级

AI illustration on MiDeer Observer

Source: Global Times