Low-capacity operation of New Zealand sawmills has led to a significant decline in timber stocks, raising concerns over supply shortages. Meanwhile, global uncertainties and geopolitical factors have dampened demand for New Zealand timber in traditional export markets of the US, Europe and Asia. From January to April 2025, China's log imports from New Zealand fell 4% year-on-year to 5.89 million cubic metres, with average prices down 5%, remaining below the same period last year for four consecutive months.

Despite A-grade log CFR prices holding around US$110, importers are still making losses, and the volume of logs shipped to China is expected to shrink further. New Zealand timber exporters are seeking to diversify, reducing reliance on the Chinese market and turning their attention to India. The New Zealand Timber Industry Federation (NZTIF) noted that India has huge and rapidly growing demand, proposing to position radiata pine as a 'versatile' timber, leveraging its ease of handling, processing and sustainable management to break into the Indian market.

Success in tapping this billion-dollar Indian market will depend on price competitiveness and depth of market development.

Around 70% of New Zealand's log exports go to China, where radiata pine has long dominated the market thanks to zero tariffs and stable supply. However, in the first four months of 2025, both import volumes and prices into China declined; although A-grade log CFR prices held at US$110, importers are generally loss-making, and low-capacity operation of sawmills has already led to a notable reduction in stocks. For local small and medium-sized forestry enterprises, the risk of reliance on a single market is once again highlighted.

Looking at the industry landscape, India imports over 10 million cubic metres of timber annually, with traditional suppliers such as Malaysia and Germany holding a first-mover advantage. New Zealand's sawn timber exports to India over the past five years have been only about US$10 million, almost negligible. NZTIF's push to position radiata pine as a 'versatile' timber targets India's huge demand for easy-to-process and sustainable materials in construction, furniture and packaging industries.

This presents opportunities: small and medium enterprises could jointly participate in industry promotion, develop anti-corrosion treatment solutions for India's tropical climate, or seek tariff concessions under free trade agreements. But challenges are equally clear — Indian buyers are highly price-sensitive and already have established procurement networks; New Zealand needs to break through with more competitive landed prices and flexible payment terms. Local processors should also note that if log exports shift towards India, it could lift domestic log prices and squeeze sawn timber margins.

Success in capturing a share of the Indian market depends not only on costs but also on building a stable supply chain through collaboration.

Keywords: New Zealand timber, log exports, Chinese market, Indian market, radiata pine, supply shortage, diversification, import decline, NZTIF, billion-dollar market

新西兰锯木厂低产能运转导致木材库存显著下降，引发供应短缺担忧。同时，受全球不确定性与地缘政治影响，新西兰木材在美欧亚传统出口市场遇冷。2025年1-4月，中国自新西兰进口原木同比下降4%至589万立方米，均价下跌5%，连续四个月低于去年同期。

尽管A级原木CFR价格维持在110美元左右，进口商仍处于亏损状态，预计输华原木量将进一步收缩。新西兰木材出口商正寻求多元化布局，减少对中国市场依赖，将目光转向印度。新西兰木材工业联合会(NZTIF)指出印度市场需求庞大且增长迅猛，提议将辐射松定位为“全能型”木材，凭借其易处理、易加工及可持续管理优势开拓印度市场。

能否成功撬动印度这个千亿市场，取决于价格竞争力与市场开拓深度。

新西兰原木出口约七成销往中国，辐射松凭借零关税和稳定供应长期占据中国市场主导。然而2025年前四个月中国进口量价双降，A级原木CFR价虽维持110美元，进口商仍普遍亏损，锯木厂低产能运行已致库存显著缩减。对于本地林业中小企业而言，单一市场依赖的风险再次凸显。

从行业格局看，印度每年进口木材超千万立方米，马来西亚、德国等传统供应国占据先发优势，新西兰过去五年对印锯材出口仅千万美元，几乎可以忽略。NZTIF推动辐射松定位为“全能型”木材，看中的是印度建筑、家具和包装行业对易加工、可持续材料的庞大需求。这意味着机会：中小企业可联合参与行业推广，针对印度热带气候开发防腐处理方案，或利用自贸协定寻求关税优惠。

但挑战同样明显——印度买家价格敏感度高，且已形成成熟采购网络，新西兰需以更具竞争力的到岸价和灵活付款条件破局。本地加工商更应关注，若原木出口转向印度，可能拉涨国内原木价格，挤压锯材利润。能否在印度市场分羹，不只看成本，更取决于能否协同建立稳定的供应链服务。

关键词: 新西兰木材, 原木出口, 中国市场, 印度市场, 辐射松, 供应短缺, 多元化, 进口下滑, NZTIF, 千亿市场

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Source: Zhihu