New Zealand's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) reports that the ongoing downturn in China's housing market is severely affecting New Zealand log exports. In the first half of 2025, Chinese real estate investment fell 10.2% year-on-year, with slowing construction activity dampening log demand. China, New Zealand's largest export market, processes over 80% of radiata pine logs through its ports.

In the October-December quarter last year, China's log imports dropped 8.8% year-on-year, with New Zealand radiata pine's share falling from 54% to 51.4%. China launched stimulus packages in May and September to reduce housing inventory and ensure developer financing, but the market recovery is slow. Weak consumer confidence and subdued demand for construction timber are the main causes.

A specific timeline for recovery remains unclear.

For New Zealand log exporters, the prolonged downturn in China's property sector directly impacts over 80% of radiata pine exports. This suggests order volumes may decline further in the short term, increasing inventory pressure. Although China has introduced stimulus packages, their effectiveness remains to be seen.

Exporters are advised to diversify markets, such as Southeast Asia or the Middle East, to reduce reliance on a single market. Meanwhile, monitor the transformation trend in China's domestic timber processing industry, where demand for high-quality timber may shift from construction to furniture or decoration. Additionally, NZ log exporters could strengthen cooperation with downstream processors to add value and cope with price competition.

In the long run, China's property recovery will take time; exporters should adjust supply chain strategies to flexibly respond to demand fluctuations.

Keywords: China housing market, New Zealand log exports, radiata pine, real estate investment decline, log import volume, MFAT report, construction activity slowdown, weak demand, stimulus packages, export share

新西兰外交和贸易部（MFAT）报告指出，中国住房市场持续低迷严重影响新西兰原木出口。2025年前半年中国房地产投资同比下降10.2%，建筑活动放缓导致原木需求疲软。中国作为新西兰最大出口市场，超80%的辐射松原木通过中国港口加工。

去年10月至12月季度，中国原木进口量同比下降8.8%，其中新西兰辐射松原木进口占比从54%降至51.4%。中国政府5月和9月推出刺激计划以减少住房库存并确保开发商融资，但市场复苏缓慢。消费者信心不足及建筑木材需求疲软是主因。

具体恢复时间表尚未明确。

对于新西兰原木出口商，中国房地产持续低迷直接冲击了超过80%的辐射松出口。这意味著短期内订单量可能进一步下滑，库存压力增加。虽然中国政府推出了刺激计划，但效果有待观察，建议出口商拓展多元化市场，例如东南亚或中东，减少对单一市场的依赖。

同时，关注中国国内木材加工行业的转型趋势，例如对高品质木材的需求可能从建筑转向家具或装饰领域。此外，新西兰原木出口商可加强与下游加工企业的合作，提升附加值，以应对价格竞争。长期来看，中国房地产复苏需时间，出口商应调整供应链策略，灵活应对需求波动。

关键词: 中国住房市场, 新西兰原木出口, 辐射松, 房地产投资下降, 原木进口量, MFAT报告, 建筑活动放缓, 需求疲软, 刺激计划, 出口占比

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Source: Internet Search